consulting4results Strategy and Horizon Scanning

Business Strategy and Futures Analysis

This page presents some of the issues relevant to Business Strategy and Futures Analysis and summarises the services offered.

More information can be found by clicking on the relevant button under the 'Approach and Products' heading in the menu.

Issues

The importance of developing a robust business strategy informed by an analysis of external social, political, economic, technical, and environmental factors cannot be overstated.

According to research (Forward Thinking Report - Changing the way you think about change (2008)) by Barclays Commercial Bank and the Institute of Directors (IoD):

“More than 500,000 UK businesses do not plan for forward thinking at all…and more than a quarter of UK businesses believe their company has underperformed because it failed to think adequately about the future external environment”

In the report, IoD Director General Miles Templeman is quoted as saying "thinking about the future is not an abstract concept. It is central to corporate success and the bottom line".

There is concern in the public sector as well that too many strategies and policies are developed without considering emerging external threats and opportunities, which is why organisations across the sector are investing in futures analysis (or Horizon Scanning).

Here are some examples of futures techniques that can be used to develop and/or test your business strategy, policy, goals, programmes, etc, and for which consulting4results has relevant experience. This type of analysis should not just be undertaken by strategists and policy makers but operational staff as well:

　

Futures Technique

Short Description of Technique

How to apply the insights to Business Strategy

Driver Analysis

Identify and then prioritise external factors/ catalysts for change (e.g., advancements in technology, proliferation of social networks, migration, cyber crime, etc) which could have a big impact on your business but about which little is known.

Identify specific threats and opportunities relating to the prioritised Drivers for Change. Specific actions can be identified to tackle threats/risks and exploit opportunities, which in turn can be incorporated into your business strategy.

Scenario Planning

Using the output from Driver Analysis described above, develop a range of scenarios that might play out.

Test the robustness of your existing business strategy, goals, policy, programmes/projects, etc, against the scenarios you have developed.

Systems Thinking

Maps the dynamic cause and effect relationships between variables in a ‘system‘. These variables could be business levers, performance indicators, external factors (such as drivers for change), etc.

The direct and indirect consequences of changes to variables in the system can be considered. Specific actions can be identified to tackle threats/risks and exploit opportunities flowing from the consequences, which in turn can be incorporated into your business strategy.

　

　

There are a number of other structured techniques for shaping and developing business strategy - for example:

　

Strategy Development Technique

Technique Description

How to apply the insights to Business Strategy

SWOT

A simple but powerful method for capturing Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats.

The SWOT analysis can be translated into strategic goals or detailed action plans.

Value Chain Analysis/ Process Mapping

The Value Chain was devised by Michael Porter. It describes the various stages in a business where value is added.

There are a number of process mapping techniques - for example Integrated Definition (IDEF), Flow Charting, Swimlanes, etc - that complement Value Chain Analysis and which can be used to get a detailed understanding of end-to-end processes, sub-processes, activities and tasks within a business.

By understanding where value is created (or destroyed), strategies can be devised to exploit strengths or addresses weaknesses. SWOT (see above) can be used in conjunction with the Value Chain Analysis.

At a more detailed level, process maps can be used to benchmark performance across the business.

Performance Gap Analysis

Use a range of information sources and structured techniques to consider actual versus planned business performance to identify gaps - for example:

Balanced Scorecard/business performance indicators

Value Chain Analysis (see above)

SWOT (see above)

Portfolio analysis using something like the Boston Matrix

Systems Thinking to identify the root cause of any gaps in performance.

Any performance gaps identified can be addressed by changing the in-year strategy or shaping strategy for the new financial year.

Strategy Maps

The Strategy Map was devised by Robert S. Kaplan and David P. Norton to present an organisation's strategy - and more specifically, dynamic cause and effective relationships between the variables in the Strategy Map.

Typically I would map critical success factors. The dynamic relationships will start to identify priorities which can be used to shape strategy. The Strategy Map also provides a framework for devising business performance indicators.

Risk-Based Analysis

Some organisations try to avert events or plan contingencies by focussing on key risks and their interdependencies. These risks can be identified using some of the other techniques (e.g., SWOT, futures analysis, Value Chain Analysis)

Risks can be translated into tangible actions and desired outcomes which can then form part of your business strategy.

　

Services

The services offered are summarised below:

Workshop facilitation to create business strategy using the techniques described in the tables above

Futures analysis/horizon scanning activities, using techniques such as Systems Thinking, Abstracting, Driver Analysis, Scenario Planning, Roadmapping, and Windtunnelling

Translate futures insights into strategy and business/action plans

'Critical Friend' advice - i.e., quality-assure work you might be doing yourself, providing advice on which futures/horizon techniques to use, helping you design a strategy workshop, etc

Training

If you have any questions, or would like to discuss how we might be able to help you, please send an e-mail to:

info@consulting4results.co.uk

Futures Technique	Short Description of Technique	How to apply the insights to Business Strategy
Driver Analysis	Identify and then prioritise external factors/ catalysts for change (e.g., advancements in technology, proliferation of social networks, migration, cyber crime, etc) which could have a big impact on your business but about which little is known.	Identify specific threats and opportunities relating to the prioritised Drivers for Change. Specific actions can be identified to tackle threats/risks and exploit opportunities, which in turn can be incorporated into your business strategy.
Scenario Planning	Using the output from Driver Analysis described above, develop a range of scenarios that might play out.	Test the robustness of your existing business strategy, goals, policy, programmes/projects, etc, against the scenarios you have developed.
Systems Thinking	Maps the dynamic cause and effect relationships between variables in a ‘system‘. These variables could be business levers, performance indicators, external factors (such as drivers for change), etc.	The direct and indirect consequences of changes to variables in the system can be considered. Specific actions can be identified to tackle threats/risks and exploit opportunities flowing from the consequences, which in turn can be incorporated into your business strategy.

Strategy Development Technique	Technique Description	How to apply the insights to Business Strategy
SWOT	A simple but powerful method for capturing Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats.	The SWOT analysis can be translated into strategic goals or detailed action plans.
Value Chain Analysis/ Process Mapping	The Value Chain was devised by Michael Porter. It describes the various stages in a business where value is added. There are a number of process mapping techniques - for example Integrated Definition (IDEF), Flow Charting, Swimlanes, etc - that complement Value Chain Analysis and which can be used to get a detailed understanding of end-to-end processes, sub-processes, activities and tasks within a business.	By understanding where value is created (or destroyed), strategies can be devised to exploit strengths or addresses weaknesses. SWOT (see above) can be used in conjunction with the Value Chain Analysis. At a more detailed level, process maps can be used to benchmark performance across the business.
Performance Gap Analysis	Use a range of information sources and structured techniques to consider actual versus planned business performance to identify gaps - for example: Balanced Scorecard/business performance indicators Value Chain Analysis (see above) SWOT (see above) Portfolio analysis using something like the Boston Matrix Systems Thinking to identify the root cause of any gaps in performance.	Any performance gaps identified can be addressed by changing the in-year strategy or shaping strategy for the new financial year.
Strategy Maps	The Strategy Map was devised by Robert S. Kaplan and David P. Norton to present an organisation's strategy - and more specifically, dynamic cause and effective relationships between the variables in the Strategy Map.	Typically I would map critical success factors. The dynamic relationships will start to identify priorities which can be used to shape strategy. The Strategy Map also provides a framework for devising business performance indicators.
Risk-Based Analysis	Some organisations try to avert events or plan contingencies by focussing on key risks and their interdependencies. These risks can be identified using some of the other techniques (e.g., SWOT, futures analysis, Value Chain Analysis)	Risks can be translated into tangible actions and desired outcomes which can then form part of your business strategy.